Thursday 30 June 2022

Is Russia going to win?


Israeli military theorist Professor Martin van Creveld thought, when Russia invaded, that Ukraine would win. He now thinks Russia is winning.

'When the Russian-Ukrainian war began in February 2022, like almost all Western observers, I was convinced that the Russians would fail in their goals and lose the war.'

[That's complete news to me. I assumed Russia would win at the beginning and only after a couple of weeks started to wonder if victory was inevitable.]

'Leaving aside the details, that expectation rested on three strong pillars.

'First: Since 1945, numerous state-led armies have failed due to uprisings, unrest, guerrilla warfare, terror, asymmetric warfare and comparable forms of armed conflict...

'Second, the sheer size and population of Ukraine led me and others to believe that Russia had overstretched itself...

'Third, sheer wishful thinking - something I shared with most Western observers. Including heads of state, ministers, military, secret services and the media.'

The third pillar probably explains a lot of military analysts' thinking. They are either soldiers or think like soldiers and are engaged emotionally in the war on the Ukrainian side.

Romanian friends sent me interviews with Colonel Douglas MacGregor, Scott Ritter and others but it seemed three weeks ago (to me) that their predictions of Russian victory looked very out of date. 

Scott Ritter actually changed his mind on the ground that the war was now Nato versus Russia, not Ukraine versus Russia. 

Professor van Creveld, however, now thinks Russia's chances are not bad.

Nobody knows, in fact, but the sanctions are going to be a disaster for Europe and Russian economy is thriving on them. 

Meanwhile a new Cold War, much more stupid and less necessary than the last, is beginning. Last time the West was on the side of democracy and freedom. This time those things (though freedom with lots of restrictions and democracy run by experts not the people) and a lot of Woke ideas too.

I haven't been following Scott Ritter, but he has changed his mind a second time.

The latest article by Srđa Trifkovićn, a Serbian-American polemicist and historian, has interesting insights into the extraordinary way in which the media suppresses big news stories to support the Washington line. The same thing happens with everything, of course, including terrorism, wh
ite supremacy, #metoo, BLM, migrants etc. But suppressing an interview with Henry Kissinger!

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